212 Symposium--Quantifying Uncertainty in Forest Ecosystem Studies

Oral Session
SSSA Division: Forest, Range and Wildland Soils
Quantifying uncertainty in studies of forests is important to establish the significance of findings, make predictions with known confidence, and guide investments in research and monitoring. This symposium will address sources of uncertainty in estimates of carbon and nutrients in forest soils, above- and belowground biomass, and ecosystem inputs and outputs.  Presentations will address sources of uncertainty in forest ecosystem studies, including natural spatial and temporal variation, measurement error, model uncertainty, and model selection error.  Examples include the importance of spatial variation in detecting change over time in soil stores and measurement error in forest inventory due to identifying or classifying trees, measuring them, and determining whether trees are live or dead and in or out of a plot.  Model uncertainty within and across models is important in biomass estimation and climate predictions. Presentations will also address how these uncertainties influence monitoring designs or affect management and policy decisions.

Approved for 3.5 PD CEUs

Tuesday, November 8, 2016: 8:15 AM-12:00 PM
Phoenix Convention Center North, Room 132 B

Ruth Yanai , Scott Chang , Mary Beth Adams and Craig See
Ruth Yanai , Scott Chang , Mary Beth Adams and Craig See
8:15 AM
Introductory Remarks
8:20 AM
A Survey of Current Practices in Uncertainty Analysis in Ecosystem Ecology.
Craig See, University of Minnesota; Ruth Yanai, University of Minnesota; John L. Campbell, USDA Forest Service (FS)
9:00 AM
Does Long-Term Storage of Air-Dried Soils Effect the Results of Chemical Analyses Commonly Performed on Forest Soils?.
Gregory B. Lawrence, USGS; Michael R. Antidormi, U.S. Geological Survey; Matthew Vadeboncoeur, University of New Hampshire; Paul Hazlett, Natural Resources Canada; Ivan J. Fernandez, University of Maine; Scott W. Bailey, USDA Forest Service (FS); Donald S. Ross, University of Vermont
9:20 AM
How to Avoid Errors in Your Error Analyses and Gain Confidence in Your Confidence Intervals.
Ruth Yanai, SUNY-ESF (College of Environmental Science & Forestry); Bradley Case, Lincoln University; Hannah Buckley, Lincoln University; Richard Woolens, University of Canterbury
9:40 AM
10:00 AM
Fake Forests and Quantifying Uncertainty in Allometric Equations for the ‘Real World'.
Craig Wayson, USDA Forest Service; Oswaldo Carrillo, Instituto de Ecologia y Cambio Climatico; Marcela Olguín, Commission for Environmental Cooperation
10:20 AM
Full Error Propagation in Carbon Stock Estimation of Mexico.
Oswaldo Carrillo, Instituto de Ecologia y Cambio Climatico; Craig Wayson, USDA Forest Service
10:40 AM
Regional Scale Uncertainty Estimates from Fine-Scale Forest Inventory: Stored and Accumulated Forest Carbon in the Eastern US.
Bradley Tomasek, Duke University; Erin Schliep, University of Missouri; Alan Gelfand, Duke University; James Clark, Duke University
11:00 AM
Carbon Cycling of Forest Ecosystems As a Fuzzy System: An Attempt to Assess Uncertainties.
Anatoly Shvidenko, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis; Florian Kraxner, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis; Dmitry Schepaschenko, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis; Shamil Maksyutov, National Institute for Environmental Studies
11:20 AM
Airborne Laser Scanning-Assisted Sampling for Remote Regions.
Ronald E. McRobert, USDA Forest Service; Qi Chen, University of Hawaii at Manoa; Grant M. Domke, USDA Forest Service (FS)
11:40 AM
12:00 PM