Wither Natural Fiber Consumption? Why and What Can be Done?.

Natural fibers, and particularly cotton, have seen a steady decrease in their per capita use since the peak in the mid-1980s. Some recovery was seen in the early 2000s, but that was halted with the high prices in the 2010-2012 period. In addition, cotton has continually lost market share to man-made fibers over the past 15 years; a trend that has accelerated since 2008. Are we witnessing the slow death of natural fiber consumption? Can the trend be reversed? What do these trends mean for cotton production both in the US and abroad? This paper will explore some of the underlying reasons for the shift in consumption toward a relatively heavy reliance on man-made fibers as well as some of the consumer and economic characteristics that are driving these changes. Consumer trends will be presented along with some of the implications this has for demands on natural fibers and quality characteristics, potential changes in market structure to accommodate those changes, and implications these shifts may have on the production of cotton at the farm level. In particular, a declining per capita consumption does not necessarily equate to lower overall consumption, but changing consumer demands are likely to place new stresses on the marketing/production system and require more innovative and proactive breeding to provide characteristics to higher valued, but smaller niche markets.