Variation and Uncertainty in the Potential Yield of Korean Soybean Under Multi-Model Ensemble Climate Change Scenarios.

While climate information which provided by various Global Climate Models recently have been applied to various research fields, multi-model ensemble approach which assesses crop production in climate change in agriculture by using one or more climate information of GCMs has been widely used. The objectives of this study were first exploring responses to various climate change information in future Korean soybean production from crop model simulation with future climate change scenarios downscaled by reflecting the complex terrain information of Korea, and knowing how multi-model ensemble approach can contribute to the uncertainty assessment of future potential yield changes for Korean soybean. Among GCMs participating in CMIP5, eight GCMs were collected from 1976 to 2100 that were able to obtain a minimum dataset (e.g., daily maximum and minimum air temperatures, precipitation, and solar radiation) for crop model simulation. In 16 sites, Taegwang was planted at June 10 in CROPGRO during 1976 to 2005 for the historical period and 2006 to 2100 for the future period. Change in future yield of Taegwang were analyzed from the projected future climate change scenarios and relative changes of potential yield of Taegwang over the future period on the historical period was calculated. In the preliminary result, the averaged relative change in potential yield of 16 sites for future climate change scenarios which averaged for eight GCMs during from 2021 to 2050 showed -6.1% for RCP4.5 and -8.0% for RCP8.5, respectively. The changes of potential yield were showed different locally and the difference between MME of RCP45 and RCP85 was not significant in the southwestern regions such as Buan and Jeongeup. However, in the northern regions like Chuncheon and Hongcheon where the rise in temperature was reflected positively, the relative changes in potential yields were found to increase. Acknowledgement: this study was supported by PJ011425032016 of RDA and carried out by APEC Climate Center.