Management Adaptation and Practice Changes Using Current Available Technology Mitigate CO2 Emissions from Agricultural Soil in US Corn Belt Under Climate Change.

Soil carbon sequestration not only can improve soil quality and enhance crop production but also help mitigate CO2 emissions. Under a projected warming climate, soil carbon decomposition is expected to be accelerated and will provide positive feedback on climate change. In this study, we examined possible changes in management practices to reduce soil carbon loss due to predicted future increase in temperature for two most common continuous corn and corn/soybean ration systems in U.S. Corn Belt. Agro-ecosystem model DayCent was used to estimate climate change effect on crop production, water use, and soil carbon stock under IPCC RCP4.5 scenario using climate projections from three GCMs. Adaption strategies (changes in plating dates, cultivars, and irrigation) were predicted to effectively increase crop production and organic carbon input to the soil. Changing from conventional tillage to no tillage practice and adding a winter cover crop could also increase carbon stock compared with baseline scenarios. In conclusion, by using current available technology alone, we would be able to mitigate CO2 emissions in agriculture soil in U.S. Corn Belt.