28-6 Integrated Assessment of Impacts of Projected Climate Change on Maize Production in the Southern Africa.

See more from this Division: ASA Section: Global Agronomy
See more from this Session: Global Agronomy: I
Sunday, November 2, 2014: 3:35 PM
Long Beach Convention Center, Room 203A
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Wiltrud Durand1, Yacob Beletse2, David Cammarano3, Olivier Crespo4, C. Nhemachena5, Sue Walker6, Weldemichael Tesfuhuney7, M. Teweldemdhin8, M. Gamedze9, P. Gwimbi10, T. Mpuisang11, P. Bonolo8 and J. Jonas5, (1)Crop Science, Agricultural Research Council, Potchefstroom, South Africa
(2)Agricultural Research Council-Roodeplaat, Pretoria, South Africa
(3)James Hutton Institute, Dundee, Scotland
(4)Rondebosch, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
(5)Human Sciences Research Council, Pretoria, South Africa
(6)University of Free State, Bloemfontein, South Africa
(7)University of the Free State, Bloemfontein, South Africa
(8)Polytechnic of Namibia, Windhoek, Namibia
(9)Swaziland Meteorological Services, Mbabane, Swaziland
(10)Lesotho National University, Maseru, Lesotho
(11)Botswana College of Agriculture, Gaborone, Botswana
An impact of projected climate change on maize production was assessed in three Southern Africa countries, Namibia, Botswana, and Namibia, and South Africa using climate, crop and economic models. Two crop models, DSSAT and APSIM were calibrated for the local condition using observed climate, soil and agronomic data in the region. Past (1980-2010) and future (5 GCMs for the time period 2040-2070, with RCP8.5 and CO2 of 571ppm) maize productivity was simulated. These results then were provided to the economist to characterize the economic impacts using the Trade of Analysis for multi-dimensional impact assessment model (TOA-MD). Projections of future changes in climate in Southern Africa showed an increase in temperature and variability in rainfall, increasing the risk of crop failure and food insecurity in the region. DSSAT and APSIM simulated 20% yield reduction if maize is managed with current practices into the future, causing an increase in poverty rates of 3%. When policy is adjusted to deal with future changes in climate simulated yield increased by 10% and poverty rates decreased. 
See more from this Division: ASA Section: Global Agronomy
See more from this Session: Global Agronomy: I