Integrated Assessment of Impacts of Projected Climate Change on Maize Production in the Southern Africa.

An impact of projected climate change on maize production was assessed in three Southern Africa countries, Namibia, Botswana, and Namibia, and South Africa using climate, crop and economic models. Two crop models, DSSAT and APSIM were calibrated for the local condition using observed climate, soil and agronomic data in the region. Past (1980-2010) and future (5 GCMs for the time period 2040-2070, with RCP8.5 and CO₂ of 571ppm) maize productivity was simulated. These results then were provided to the economist to characterize the economic impacts using the Trade of Analysis for multi-dimensional impact assessment model (TOA-MD). Projections of future changes in climate in Southern Africa showed an increase in temperature and variability in rainfall, increasing the risk of crop failure and food insecurity in the region. DSSAT and APSIM simulated 20% yield reduction if maize is managed with current practices into the future, causing an increase in poverty rates of 3%. When policy is adjusted to deal with future changes in climate simulated yield increased by 10% and poverty rates decreased.