Integrated Assessment of Impacts of Projected Climate Change Scenarios on Potatoes Production in South Africa.

The impacts of projected climate change on potatoes production were assessed for potatoes farmers for three districts, in South Africa using climate, crop and economic models. Crop growth and yield data used as input by crop and economic models were collected from four localities (Hatfield, Dendron, Petrusburg and Bultfontein) over four years. Complete data sets containing daily weather, growth analyses and final tuber yields were from each location were used for model calibrations. Two crop models (DSSAT and APSIM) were calibrated for using observed climate, soil and agronomic data in the region.  Past (1980-2010) and future (5 GCMs for the time period 2040-2070, with RCP8.5 and CO₂ of 571ppm) potatoes production was simulated and the yield change between future and baseline was determined. The simulated yield changes were used as input into the Trade of Analysis for multi-dimensional impact assessment model (TOA-MD) to characterize the economic impact of climate change. Projections of future changes in climate for South Africa showed an increase in temperature and variability in rainfall, increasing the advantage of higher yield. Overall, DSSAT and APSIM simulated an increase of potatoes production using projected changes in climate in the region, which could be a benefit to food security in the region. The TOA-MD projections showed that farmers in the districts would benefit from climate change.